10th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The mid- 1990s was a turbulent period in Central Asia with the region reconciling with the collapse of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Bereft of the tight control of its mother state, the newly independent Central Asian republics faced political instability, religious fundamentalism and disputes over bordering areas. As the region whose strategic importance had at one point of time in history made it the chessboard of international politics and involved the great powers of the late 19th and early 20th centuries in the ‘Great Game’ seemed to steadily hurtle towards chaos, the need for a regional organization, which would act as a stabilizer and help the countries in solving their border disputes, was felt. Out of this thinking emerged the Shanghai
Five comprising of China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan with the immediate objective of cooling off border related tensions and putting a check on religious extremism which was resolutely rearing its ugly head. Five years after its creation, the Shanghai Five expanded into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on 15th June 2001 with the inclusion of Uzbekistan and the signing by all member- states of the Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While the basic nature of the organization as an inter-governmental mutual-security body remained unaltered, it was agreed that cooperation would be taken to a higher level. With an unwavering attention on security and military-related matters, the SCO steadily began to expand its scope to incorporate matters predominantly economic in nature such as projects related to energy, transportation, communication and finance, but which also have strategic implications in an increasingly inter- connected and globalized world. Having primarily concentrated on oil-rich Central Asia, the SCO over the last few years has also expanded geographically both to its north in the Eurasian landmass and to its south in South Asia and along with its observer states and dialogue partners, today comprises over half the population of mankind.
In its 10th anniversary held in the Kazakh capital Astana, while the SCO did a reminiscence of the past, it also looked forward to the future. The leaders of the grouping admitted that the organization could not possibly have been established at a better time even as the world faced its most devastating terrorist attacks only a few months later on 11th September 2001. The foresight with which the SCO was established with the primary objective of setting up a mechanism for combating the triple evils of ‘separatism, extremism and separatism’ was lost on international analysts in one of the most sensitive landmasses in the globe. So while the SCO managed to keep its member- states stable with the Regional Anti- Terrorism Structure (RATS), which was responsible for preventing numerous terrorist attacks and which claimed to have nabbed no less than 500 terrorists, Afghanistan, a country having geographic proximity to the SCO found itself virtually in the hands of an extremist regime like the Taliban. As the US, stunned into disbelief at the attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon launched its global war on terror against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and its protectee, the Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden, it was predominantly left to the SCO to ensure that the ripples of the war did not spread further to the Central Asian republics. While on the one hand, the SCO became a check on terrorist activities, on the other it appeared to posture itself as a balance to the West and the NATO for the ten years of its existence. With increased Western military activities in Afghanistan and the setting up NATO and US bases in the Central Asian region due to the war against terror, the SCO at least in its initial years appeared to be a military alliance not only against terrorism and extremism but also against the West. Thus many analysts suggested that with the SCO coming into its own, Central Asia may see a sort of rekindling of the Cold War, with the SCO taking on the role of the erstwhile Warsaw Pact. Certain stands taken by the SCO gave credence to such beliefs. In the 2005 summit, the organization called on the US to withdraw all its forces and shut down all its military bases in SCO member- states.
However the SCO avoided being essentially an anti- West organization, thereby preventing a show of strength with the NATO and pushing Central Asia into further destabilization, something which would have defeated the very purpose of its formation. It has at the same time kept a strict eye on possible attempts by NATO to expand beyond the North Atlantic region and further into the Central Asian region in the name of fighting terror. Hence, the SCO has in its recent summit pointed out that it is quite capable of ensuring stability in the region thereby indicating that it sees for itself rather than an ‘outside’ power like NATO the role of a stabilizer in Central Asia. In fact after the death of the dreaded international terrorist Osama Bin Laden at the hands of the US Navy Seals, many analysts feel that the basic purpose of the US military mission in Afghanistan has been fulfilled and the US administration led by President Barack Obama may well come up with a phased force reduction and ultimate withdrawal plan. The gradual disengagement of US forces engaged in conflict in different global flashpoints had in fact been one of the agendas which brought the Obama administration in power. The US administration has even set a tentative deadline of 2014 as the year of total force withdrawal from Afghanistan. That then would leave the SCO, which is undoubtedly the most important organization in Central Asia, the additional role of trying to ensuring stability in Afghanistan along with the Afghan forces. The withdrawal of US forces need not necessarily imply the withdrawal of US politics from Afghanistan.
The US will undoubtedly keep up its engagement with the Afghans in various other ways, including to a great extent in the sphere of security management. However the withdrawal of US forces will create to a certain extent a security related vacuum, which the SCO would be eager to fill up. Whether the competition for strategic space between the Western powers led by the US and the SCO, which has as two of its most prominent members, Russia and China for strategic space in the resource rich Central Asian region triggers off a new Great Game remains to be seen. What was interesting though was the fact that Afghanistan was given a special invitation to the summit, which was gladly accepted by President Hamid Karzai. Karzai’s speech in which he pointed out that there was popular discontent brewing in his country over military excesses and collateral damage caused by NATO seemed to suggest that he preferred more of a security related relationship as that offered by the SCO to its members, than the kind of subordinating support provided so far by his Western allies. It not only indicated Afghan willingness and desire to be a member of the SCO but also suggested their preference for more options than one when it came to security support and the fight against extremism and terrorism.
Despite being regarded as primarily a forum for anti- Western policies, the SCO countries led by China and Russia have tried to project their organization as one providing views on global problems and issues which may be different and essentially independent from Western standpoints. Hence SCO countries have deliberately avoided making any statements that were overt in their anti- Westernism. A break from tradition was however indulged in by the hard- line Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad whose inflammatory anti- West speech caused a degree of discomfort among the other member- states. Iran’s membership of the SCO has been stalled by the international sanctions imposed on it by the UN, as the SCO membership rules demand a clean international reputation for any country. The Indian Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh skipped the summit instead sending his External Affairs Minister. There is a feeling amongst certain diplomatic circles that India is yet to give the due importance to the SCO that it deserves. This slightly reluctant attitude may partly have to do with India’s growing closeness to the US, including in security related matters. As far as the SCO is concerned, India does have major differences with at least one very crucial member in the form of China, with whom India not only shares borders but also border disputes. China plays a dominant role in the SCO and has tacitly used its influence in the region to counter US might in Central Asia. China’s ‘string of pearls’ policy whereby it is seen gradually encircling India militarily and its recent tirade relating to Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims to its own territory and frequent reports of its ‘inadvertent’ military incursions into India soil are possible reasons for India’s carefully calibrated approach to the SCO. Another reason for India maintaining a slight distance from the SCO is that the latter too with its stringent and rather inflexible membership rules has been less than open to new membership aspirants like India. With hopes of more flexible membership rules rekindled in the present Astana summit India, which as of now is an observer country, is likely to once again show interest in becoming a SCO member. Its membership as also those of countries like Pakistan will throw open the gates of the organization to South Asia and help it become a bride between Central Asia and South Asia, two extremely important and sensitive landmasses in terms of geopolitics. With further entries of countries like Ukraine and Belarus, it will serve to integrate the Caspian Sea with the Indian Ocean and extend its frontiers up to Eurasian nations apart from Russia. Russia on its part would love to see Ukraine within the SCO. Ukraine has been a potential political conflict region between Russia and the US-led West, with each backing Ukrainian leaders of their choice. The conflict over Ukraine is part of a larger political tussle for control over gas pipelines between Russia and the West and the inclusion of Ukraine in the SCO would help Russia exercise greater influence over that country and prevent it from getting sucked into the orbit of the NATO.
Drugs and arms trafficking, organized transnational crime and illegal immigration are problems that continue to plague the SCO nations. The Golden Crescent of narcotic drugs comprising of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran lies close to the present territory of the Central Asian countries within the SCO. The possible inclusion of these countries within the organization is only likely to increase its problems relating to trafficking of drugs and arms and organized crime. Illegal money generated from the drug trade helps in funding terrorism, extremism and separatism, the triple evils SCO is geared up to fight. Similarly the illegal arms trafficked in the region are used to arm the elements who spread violence in the region whereas criminals often metamorphose into terrorists as well as provide violent movements their foot soldiers. Hence, in the Astana summit, the member countries signed the Anti-drug Strategy for the period 2011-16 and also came up with an Action Plan to implement the Strategy. Economic cooperation within the organization has increased over the years as have bilateral trade between the member states.
However, the one economic factor which has the potential to gel the nations is energy. Energy cooperation makes tremendous economic sense for the countries of the SCO. While Central Asia and Russia are rich in hydrocarbons, China with its burgeoning economy and rapid growth rates is energy thirsty and is likely to remain that way in the near future. Its energy demand can help provide a ready market for Central Asian and Russian hydrocarbons. With the likely inclusion of India in the SCO, the organization can boost of having two of the fastest growing economies in the world within its fold, both having insatiable thirst for energy, which can consequently stimulate the generation of oil and gas in the other member states.
It is in fact likely that economic interest more than the security related one may make the SCO extremely attractive for India. Energy interest is likely to be a bigger integrating factor for the SCO members and its possible future members than commonality of strategic interests. This is perhaps what the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev had in mind when he proposed an integral system of Eurasian pipelines and electric power grids for the region highlighting the need to unite energy related interests. Among other propositions made by the Kazakh President before he handed over the organization’s presidency to the Chinese were the establishment of an SCO council for dealing with territorial and regional conflicts, setting up of a SCO Emergency Situations Center, creation of a SCO Anti- drug Center, joint development of transport and power space projects, creation of a SCO Water and Food Commission at the level of the heads of the respective national authorities and the building up of a new SCO mechanism for closer economic cooperation and further financing of joint projects. Another important document which was signed was the Protocol of Understanding between the Executive Committee of the RATS SCO and the CSTO Secretariat. Amidst trying times the SCO has survived as an organization, fulfilled most of the goals it set for itself and succeeded in stabilizing the turbulent Central Asian region. As it completes a full decade of its existence, it can undoubtedly look forward to strengthening itself and making it a more viable organization in the years to come.
